Election Outcomes for Human Factors Priorities

The 2024 election has concluded, delivering a unified republican government. Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have been elected to be the next President and Vice President by an electoral landslide, notably winning all seven swing states and the popular vote. With Republicans maintaining control in both houses of Congress, the Trump administration could implement many of the changes it presented on the campaign trail including a dramatic reduction in the federal workforce and funding scheme, increased tariffs on Chinese and other international goods, and deregulation across the federal agencies. The Second Trump administration is likely to pose new threats to the higher education, research, and regulatory communities. However, there may be new opportunities for related to U.S. national security and international competitiveness. The Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (HFES) has had prior success advocating for its priorities with conservative stakeholders by focusing on how human factors research and requirements is critical to efficient and effective technology development and this could be critical in assisting increased support for federal research and development in emerging technology areas.

Research and Development (R&D)

The second Trump Administration is expected to continue to support research and development in key technology areas to bolster U.S. global competitiveness. While the previous Biden administration focused on developing its efforts to combat climate change and advance clean energy sources, the Trump administration will likely shift towards early-stage research in emerging technology areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum, advanced computing, advanced communications, advanced manufacturing, and biotechnology. This may mean an increased focus on supporting industry-led R&D through tax breaks and deregulation. For example, the Trump “Energy Independence Strategy” will largely include deregulation and increased investments in the oil and gas extraction industry.

Much of the federal research apparatus, especially in the social sciences and in translational research, is expected to experience a more constrained funding environment. During Trump’s first term there were targeted efforts to decrease funding in the social sciences, including for the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Social, Behavioral, and Economic Directorate. This will likely be continued in his second term, however, while this may impact some human factors research opportunities, the increased focus on the physical sciences will provide human factors related research opportunities to support the efficient development and deployment of these key technology areas.

It will also be wait and see what happens to the major science initiatives that were hallmarks of the Biden Administration. Specifically, the CHIPS and Science Act has already received criticism from President-elect Trump and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and could be reformed in the new Congress. Nevertheless, many Republicans in Congress are supporters of rural STEM education initiatives and will likely bolster efforts on developing research and workforce capacity in underserved counties. In addition, NSF’s new Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships (TIP) Directorate, which was established as part of CHIPS and Science, has enjoyed bipartisan support in Congress but could face budgetary constraints and shifts in its underlying priorities. It is unlikely that TIP will be eliminated entirely but, like the rest of the Federal R&D enterprise, will be shaped to fit the priorities of the new Administration.

Health and Biomedical Priorities

Despite historical bipartisan support, health agencies like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) will likely be subjected to increased scrutiny, and face reorganization and shifts in agency priorities as promulgated by the Trump administration.

Trump’s health priorities will likely highlight a focus on the prevention of chronic diseases, which is a stark contrast to the Biden administration’s support for infectious disease research. Addressing mental health issues, accelerating translational research, and improving rural health remain strong bipartisan health priorities and could rise as leading topics in a Trump Administration health agenda as well. In addition, support for biotechnology transcended through both the first Trump Administration and the Biden Administration and will likely persist in the next Trump Administration. There will also likely be a renewed focus on bolstering cybersecurity across federal health agencies and healthcare organizations and developing public health workforce education and training programs.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Emerging Technologies

Development of key technology areas that were prioritized during the first Trump Administration and are expected to remain a focus. In addition, Senator Ted Cruz is set to chair the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, which will take up jurisdiction over policies focused on AI, space, and a wide range of other science and technology provisions in the new session. While HFES has had recent success advocating for the safety concerns related to human factors, this new dynamic will require an increased focus on how human factors improve the efficient development and adoption of new technologies, including how such efficiency mitigates cost concerns related to technology development. 

Work on AI will build from recommendations provided by the 2024 Senate Bipartisan AI Working Group, which called for a $32 billion for AI research and development. The House Task Force on AI is expected to inform policy decisions as well, as it is anticipated to release a set of recommendations as well. President 

Trump and his advisors also championed the need for increase AI investment on the campaign trail. Any investment will likely be parallel to an effort to largely roll back many Biden-era proposed regulatory guardrails. However, during his first Administration, President Trump released a memo on maintaining leadership in AI, which emphasized that protecting health and safety, privacy, and other values, will be essential to a successful regulatory framework. Human factors concerns, including those laid out in the HFES policy statement on “AI Guardrails for Human Use”, may provide solutions to current dynamic.

The Trump transition team has also indicated that it will prioritize regulating automated vehicle (AVs) through the Department of Transportation. This will pave the way for the commercialization of AVs, including self-driving taxis. HFES will have a critical role to play in ensuring that guidance from the Trump Administration allows for the effective and safe integration of AVs onto roads across the country.

National Security and Space Priorities

Congress and the Trump Administration are expected to prioritize funding to support the Department of Defense’s (DOD’s) goals for modernization, national security infrastructure, and basic research. The new Congress will continue to prioritize expanded research partnerships and collaboration with nontraditional partners to bolster US defense capabilities to compete against China. DOD will also likely experience an increase in its top-line funding levels in the upcoming fiscal years.

The new Administration and Congress will likely emphasize human spaceflight both at NASA and through commercial space companies. Senator Cruz has expressed an interest in curtailing regulations on commercial space activities to stimulate more human space flight activities. However, increased space activity will raise the need for human factors research and could provide increased opportunities for the HFES community.